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In mid-2025, home prices in Ontario and British Columbia experienced modest drops of 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively, with sales projected to slip further through the year. These declines reflect a temporary market stabilization rather than a broad downturn, offering a narrow window of opportunity for buyers before a recovery is expected.

The market shift is largely product-specific. Toronto faces an oversupply of pre-construction condos—projects boasting around 58 months of inventory, a nearly 14-fold increase compared to 2022. This imbalance has provoked a 40% drop in new starts for June. Conversely, Vancouver is pivoting toward multi-unit rental construction, with housing starts up 74% year-over-year amid climbing demand and a vacancy rate near 3.2%.

Other Canadian regions aren't seeing the same dynamics. Montreal, Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver are outpacing Toronto in housing starts, capitalizing on resident-driven demand; notably, Toronto recorded just 1,701 starts in June compared to 2,729 in Montreal and over 2,300 in Calgary. Alberta markets, meanwhile, are forecast to grow modestly in 2025 before plateauing. Nationally, starts rose 3.6% in June with a 14% rise year-over-year. With anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, CREA and CMHC expect Ontario and B.C. prices to rebound by 2026, suggesting this is a unique pause in high-barrier housing markets.

Read the full article on: REAL ESTATE MAGAZINE